Sean Lavelle
When will artificial intelligence surpass the cognitive capabilities of humans? The exact timeline for achieving this milestone—known as artificial general intelligence (AGI)—remains uncertain, yet recent advances indicate that transformative leaps may be rapidly approaching—clearly with significant defense implications. In a 2022 survey of artificial intelligence experts, 20 percent believed that human-level AI would be developed by 2032. Major leaders in the space are now talking about its creation within two or three years. One of the most evocative descriptions of what this capability could look like is “a nation of geniuses in a data center.” These geniuses would be able to do anything a human can do today with a laptop and internet connection.
If these timelines are at all reasonable, ensuring the US military is AGI ready is of paramount importance. With AGI, the tempo of military innovation could shift from decades to mere weeks, upending the established processes for fielding new capabilities. Tremendous national effort is going toward making sure America has the best AI in the world. Placing too much faith in always having the best AI carries serious risks, though, especially when computing resources and open-source breakthroughs are global and diffuse quickly. A Chinese-built model, Deepseek R1, recently drove home the point that the race for AGI can turn on a dime. Deepseek R1 uses a reasoning technique recently pioneered by OpenAI, yet comes close to matching the performance of OpenAI’s flagship model, o1. While semiconductor export controls heavily handicap the race in America’s favor, rapid algorithmic improvements could change the landscape overnight.
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