Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to affect the geopolitical landscape of the post-Soviet states. It has not only had a profound impact on Ukraine – and on Russia – but it is more broadly prompting changes to military partnerships, defence spending and diplomatic relationships in many countries.
Russia remains committed to its effort to subdue Ukraine, despite this proving costly not only in terms of significant losses of Russian military equipment and personnel but also increasingly in economic terms. For Ukraine, maintaining the fight and attempting to eject Russian forces has mobilised significant Western political and military support, and has led to military adaptation and innovation that is being studied globally, but has come at great cost. Elsewhere, Armenia is increasingly estranged from Russia; Georgia remains unsettled and its relations with the European Union are cooling; while further west, Moldova’s alignment with Ukraine underscores its commitment to European integration. Russia has allegedly pursued information operations in both Georgia and Moldova. Meanwhile, some countries in Central Asia are seeking greater autonomy from Russia, pursuing independent initiatives and forging relationships.
The Caucasus and Central AsiaArmenia has seen significant change since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, which culminated in Azerbaijan taking control of all Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Despite Russia being a treaty ally of Armenia, Moscow provided no direct political or military support, demonstrating to Yerevan that Russia’s security guarantees were ineffective. Armenia has since frozen its participation in activities and events related to the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and, after the 2022 flare-up, opted for an EU civilian monitoring mission over a similar offer from the CSTO. In August 2024, Armenia secured the withdrawal of Russian border guards from Zvartnots International Airport (the country’s main airport) and from the Armenia–Azerbaijan border.
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