Robert S. Burrell
Introduction
Ignoring localized security black spots can have global repercussions if left unchecked. Until 2024, for instance, the United States and its Western partners paid little attention to the Iranian-sponsored Houthis in Yemen…until this belligerent power disturbed global shipping patterns and completely shut down the Red Sea. Elsewhere, in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Sahel, a vast trend in rampant irregular warfare has emerged with global implications – largely unaddressed today by the West until they become a pressing and immediate crisis.
Like with the aforementioned regions, little international attention is being paid to Myanmar (Burma), which has been embroiled in a pervasive conflict since 2021. This is an important contest for regional states, including China, which have vested interests. While preparation for large-scale combat operations against a peer adversary remains critical for countries like Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, irregular warfare and proxy warfare along the periphery in fragile states remain the likely future battleground of competition.
Take one look at Figure 1 from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which compares state-on-state conflict (dark blue) with intrastate conflict (teal) and intrastate conflict supported by external states in yellow. Instances of intrastate conflict (and states taking sides in intrastate conflict) is soaring, while occurrences of state-on-state conflict remains small. The picture that emerges shows that if the trend continues, then academic efforts within international security should prioritize the study and resolution of intra-state conflicts.
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