Research Report Exploring Factors for U.S.-Russia Crisis Stability in Space

CHEYENNE TRETTER

Source Link

Introduction: Trends in Russia’s Risk Tolerance and Strategy in Space

Advances in Western and adversary capabilities in space raise questions about the prospects for maintaining crisis stability in space. This project defines stability as the avoidance of unintended escalation.1 The swiftly evolving dynamics of the space domain could give rise to unstable competition that raises the risk of rapid—and perhaps unintended—military escalation during a crisis. Identifying potential threats to crisis stability in space is important for policymakers to better understand the requirements for establishing and maintaining control of crises in the space domain. In this report, the author explores the prospects for crisis stability in space between the United States and Russia and seeks to better understand Russia’s perspectives on space by identifying key trends in Russian doctrine, military thinking, and threat perception. The author provides key implications of Russian thinking for U.S. officials tasked with managing crisis stability in space.

Theorizing the prospects for crisis stability in space between the United States and Russia requires an examination of Russia’s goals and threat perception in space, deterrence and escalation management strategy, and experience using space in conflict.