Steven Pifer
Over the past week, the Trump administration has begun outlining its approach to brokering an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. These ideas have raised consternation in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe, however, Moscow seemed elated. Administration officials have made basic negotiating errors when rolling out their approach that, left uncorrected, will doom their bid to end the war.
First, No Premature Concessions
A settlement of the war, and the prospects for its durability, will be judged on two factors: how much Ukrainian territory remains in Russian hands, and what security guarantees Kyiv receives. On February 12, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called it unrealistic for Ukraine to regain all its territory or to join NATO. If Washington seeks to play an honest broker, senior American officials should not concede points to the Kremlin at the outset.
Second, Be In On The Landing and Takeoff
Europe has a direct interest in the outcome of the war, and the administration envisages Europe playing a major role in implementing a settlement by providing peacekeeping or security forces, with no U.S. force contribution. Washington reportedly has asked European officials to draft plans for those forces. Yet, administration officials say Europe will not take part in negotiating a settlement in which they could end up putting their troops at risk.
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