Daniel B. Shapiro
High on the agenda of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House this week is a potential deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Trump wants to move fast on it, having dispatched his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Riyadh both during the transition and last week.
This historic achievement, which would produce major gains for US national security interests, is within reach. But it is not imminent. A carefully sequenced series of steps, and a corresponding political strategy, has a greater likelihood of success, perhaps even later this year, than a mad rush in the opening weeks of Trump’s term.
Several conditions must fall into place to make this deal viable.
First, the Gaza ceasefire must hold and advance to its second phase. If all goes well, by early March, phase one will be complete, with the release of thirty-three Israeli hostages and a significant surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The second phase, for which negotiations are just getting underway, would secure the release of the remaining live Israeli hostages.
While Netanyahu already lost one far-right coalition partner, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, over the deal, and another, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is a threat to leave Netanyahu’s coalition and bring down his government if phase two occurs, polls show that 73 percent of the Israeli public wants the agreement to proceed. Trump will insist that Netanyahu deliver on this. According to Israeli media reports, Witkoff told the prime minister, “Your coalition is your problem.”
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