John Mecklin
Extremely dangerous trends continue
There were no calamitous new developments last year with respect to nuclear weapons—but this is hardly good news.
Longstanding concerns about nuclear weapons—involving the modernization and expansion of arsenals in all nuclear weapons countries, the build-up of new capabilities, the risks of inadvertent or deliberate nuclear use, the loss of arms control agreements, and the possibility of nuclear proliferation to new countries—continued or were amplified in 2024. The outgoing Biden administration showed little willingness or capacity to pursue new efforts in these areas, and it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will seize the initiative. At this time, it is difficult to anticipate when and how these negative trends may be slowed and, ultimately, reversed.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended compliance with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and Russia’s Duma voted to withdraw Moscow's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Western officials confirmed in March 2024 that Russian nuclear weapons have been deployed in Belarus. In August 2024, Ukrainian forces entered Russia’s Kursk Oblast, and Ukraine subsequently attacked targets deeper into Russia, using US-supplied missiles with Washington’s permission. Russia revised its nuclear doctrine to signal a lower threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, and it used an intermediate-range ballistic missile against a Ukrainian target.
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