4 February 2025

In Depth: Biological Threats

John Mecklin

Daunting biological threats

Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases continue to threaten the global economy, society, and security. The collective experience with COVID-19 has led to increased skepticism about the recommendations of public health officials. The off-season appearance and in-season continuance of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the number and types of birds it has infected, the number and types of mammals to which it has spread, its appearance in dairy products, and the troubling occurrence of human cases have combined to create an increasingly worrisome situation. The ability of all influenza viruses to mutate, break apart, and recombine to create new strains makes the emergence of a human-transmissible version of bird flu a serious possibility. Meanwhile, climate change is altering the characteristics of habitats worldwide, with more animals carrying, and more insects spreading, diseases to each other and to humans.

Concern is also growing over the continued proliferation of high-containment biological laboratories around the world, indicating scientific interest in high-risk biological research. Such research often underpins advances in biological science, and nations cannot afford to back away from biological research and development that will increase their competitiveness in the global bioeconomy. Yet such research also poses dangers. Continued arguments about dual-use and gain-of-function research acknowledge both the risks associated with such research efforts—including the possibility of pathogen escapes from biological labs—and the need to continue this research to find ways to treat some of humanity’s worst diseases. Proponents of synthetic biology say that it could provide much-sought-after medical breakthroughs; opponents say that the ability to engineer organisms could lead to the development of entirely new and dangerous pathogens. That we “don’t know what we don’t know” with regard to secret biological research undertaken for nefarious reasons remains an ever-present concern.

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