Alex Scheers
Introduction
The Islamic Republic stated Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, “has absolutely no intention of utilizing its nuclear capabilities for military purposes.” He goes on to cite ideological and religious beliefs as the rationale for not seeking weaponization. However, religious persuasions do not provide a credible explanation for the leadership’s decision not to weaponize the Iranian nuclear program.
With the international security landscape changing rapidly and becoming increasingly uncertain and dangerous, it is imperative for the US national security establishment to consider how Iran would deploy its nuclear forces, should it ever exercise the political will to weaponize its nuclear program. In this article, I highlight that the impetus to develop a nuclear weapon depends on Iranian domestic political dynamics and argue that a nuclear Iran would adopt a deterrence-by-punishment posture, using its nuclear forces as a strategic deterrent.
Iranian Nuclear Behavior and Domestic Politics
Iran is a destabilizing actor in the Middle East. Its constant attempts to attack Israel and threaten regional Arab powers are emblematic of Iranian belligerence. Equally, Iran continually poses a threat to American security and interests, both regionally and internationally.
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