Nicholas Farrelly
Myanmar’s top generals have had another bad year. Under relentless attack, their subordinates have surrendered regional military command headquarters, draconian conscription regulations were introduced to bolster the dwindling rank-and-file, and in the north, east and west, rebel armies are strangling access to valuable resources.
Old certainties on the battlefields have been overturned by the proliferation of armed groups, including nimble guerrilla squads in central Myanmar and the widespread use, by all sides, of new combat technologies, including drones.
The economy, under these conditions, is spluttering — with the national currency, the kyat, now worth only a quarter of its pre-COVID-19 value.
Regime officials have imposed price controls on essentials like rice, cooking oil, eggs, fish and meat. Even middle-class families struggle to survive, and flows of desperate migrants are continuing to flee to Thailand and Malaysia.
The junta is also clamping down in the digital sphere, limiting access to information and networks through the Internet. The top generals’ devastating misjudgement of the public mood in early 2021 means monitoring and coercing the population is a bigger job than ever.
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