Theresa Hitchens
Russia’s “inflated” fears of a potential US first strike in space, as well as Moscow’s increasing “risk tolerance” present challenges to US efforts to keep the peace in the heavens, a new Space Force-commissioned think tank study finds.
The study published today by RAND, “Emerging Factors for U.S.-Russia Crisis Stability in Space” authored by summer associate Cheyenne Tretter, further warns US policymakers and diplomats that Russia’s “relative restraint” regarding the space domain in the conflict in the Ukraine war should not be expected in any future conflict in the West.
RAND’s research work was commissioned by the Space Force’s Chief Strategy & Resourcing Officer Lt. Gen. Shawn Bratton, and was conducted within the RAND Project AIR FORCE Strategy and Doctrine Program as part of its fiscal year 2023 project, “Crisis Stability in Space.”
The key problem, the study finds, is that Moscow’s hyper-suspicious view of US military intentions in space are driving Russia’s military to a more aggressive and hair-trigger stance, but also raising barriers to bilateral communications aimed at ratcheting down conflict risks and/or finding ways to de-escalate once a crisis is underway.
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