Lawrence Freedman
This substack has been going for just over three years. Weeks after we started posting Russia invaded Ukraine, and while I have written about many other topics since then, Ukraine has been my dominant concern.
This is both because this is one of the defining issues of our time, at least for a European, and also because after a long career studying a variety of wars I ought to be able to contribute to discussions on the state of this particular war and how it might conclude.
My approach to this task, which developed over time, is based on the following principles:
- Rely on trustworthy sources and don’t try to push the analysis beyond which they can support.
- Always pay attention to what the key actors are saying for this is the best guide to their priorities and concerns, if not necessarily to the truth.
- Conflicts develop in stages, each one shaping the one to come. This is why it is best to avoid firm predictions, especially about stages well beyond the current one, as these will depend on choices that have yet to be made and factors that cannot be anticipated in advance.
- While avoiding getting drawn into highly speculative scenarios, many stages away, do explore possibilities - developments that are conceivable given what is known about the current state of affairs - even if they are unlikely to transpire. So long as they are not confused with predictions, the analysis can still illuminate key factors influencing the course of the war.
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