Will Freeman
Ecuador is one of South America’s smaller nations, but it faces daunting challenges. In just a few years, it has gone from being one of mainland Latin America’s most peaceful countries to its most violent, overrun by cocaine-trafficking gangs. Ecuador also faces an energy crisis, as climate change-fueled droughts test its hydroelectric-dependent energy grid and cause blackouts, anemic growth, and rising debt. The president that Ecuadoreans choose in an April 13 runoff vote—which will pit incumbent Daniel Noboa against opposition candidate Luisa González—needs to put the country on a new course or watch each of these crises deepen.
What are the main takeaways from the first round of the presidential vote?
Given the circumstances, the result is a strong showing for Noboa, who leads the ruling National Democratic Action (ADN) party. Despite January being one of the most violent months on record, dim economic growth prospects, and last year’s nationwide blackouts caused by an energy crisis, Noboa hasn’t lost popularity as quickly as other recent Ecuadorean presidents. This could be for a few reasons: his effective digital campaign ad strategy, his image as a young politician—Noboa is thirty-seven years old, which has distanced him from the political polarization that roiled Ecuador in the 2000s and 2010s—and the modest initial results of his anti-crime policies. Many Noboa voters also appear to be patient and willing to give him more time given that he took office after 2023 snap elections, which were triggered by then President Guillermo Lasso’s dissolution of the legislature, and has only served for a short sixteen months.
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