In ACLED’s Conflict Watchlist, we identify 10 crisis areas that are likely to evolve in the coming year, both for better and for worse. The Watchlist goes beyond showcasing violent hotspots and instead offers a view into some of the world’s most complex crises. As we enter 2025, there is no shortage of intractable conflicts to choose from. But in our selection, we highlight those that represent the more general trends we are seeing from ACLED’s Conflict Index.
International and state violence represent a growing share of overall conflict rates. Conflict event rates grew by over 25% in 2024 compared to 2023, and much of this was due to the conflict emerging between states, and close affiliates of states, across the Middle East.
In the Watchlist, we cover Iran and its allies, and Israel and its neighbors. Iran’s regime is in a precarious and weak state domestically and internationally — its non-state allies are being humiliated and dismantled at pace. However, as demonstrated by the activity in Syria in late 2024, this is the beginning of the problems that may lead to a drastically changed region and the end of an era heavily influenced by Iranian politics. As noted by ACLED’s specialist Luca Nevola: “The strategic balance now favors Tel Aviv, as two of Iran’s key security pillars — regional influence through Axis of Resistance non-state actors, and missile and drone capabilities — appear under strain.”
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