Paul Heer
As the Trump administration gets underway, key aspects of how it will approach China remain unclear. It’s especially uncertain what consensus will emerge among Trump’s team on the nature and scope of the threat that China poses. During his confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that the People’s Republic of China is “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.” Along similar lines, Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz has stated that “we are, I believe, in a cold war” with China because its goal is “replacing the American Dream and American leadership around the world with the Chinese Dream and Chinese leadership.”
Does Trump himself share this view of the China threat? He rarely, if ever, talks about it in such strategic or ideological terms. His approach is often described as more “transactional,” focused on the opportunities provided by the relationship he has (or thinks he has) with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Contrary to the prevailing view of Xi as a brutal dictator—and the view among many in GOP circles that diplomatic engagement with Beijing is futile or dangerous—Trump said publicly last month that “I like President Xi very much. I’ve always liked him. We always had a very good relationship.” And “it is my expectation that we will solve many problems together.” Whether Trump’s approach will be consistent with the principles of his national security team—or the interests of the United States—remains to be seen. The meager results of his personal diplomacy during his first term with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, not to mention Xi himself, should be examined for clues and lessons.
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