Brandon J. Weichert
At an undisclosed United States Air Force base in the American Midwest, the airmen on duty have a patch with the number “2027” emblazoned upon it. That patch rests prominently on their uniforms. The number represents the year 2027, and it is worn as a literal reminder that, two years from now, the United States military believes the People’s Republic of China will be in a strong position to invade its democratic neighbor of Taiwan. For the staff on this base, the year 2027 is a framing tool for preparing themselves and their equipment for the possibility of a great power war erupting.
Indeed, the year 2027 might be inaccurate. The Chinese have repeatedly demonstrated over the last 18 months that if their political leaders choose to follow through, the Chinese military can conduct a sustained military operation against Taiwan—all while negating the power projection abilities of the United States military and its regional allies.
A Blockade, Not an Invasion
Conveying this message was the point of China’s military exercises that took place between December 6-12 at the end of last year. By most estimates, the Chinese military drills last December were the largest military exercise the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ever conducted. It involved three of the major PLA military commands, operating jointly to command a force of 134 People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) warplanes, 60 PLAN warships, 30 Chinese Coast Guard vessels, and many thousands of Chinese troops.
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