Sam Freedman
Labour strategists believe two things have to happen if they’re to win a second term. Voters have to feel at least a little better off than they do now and they have to see a noticeable improvement in the NHS. That might not be enough but it’s the minimum necessary.
At the moment they’re mainly worrying about how to achieve the first goal and feeling somewhat shaken by the negative reaction to the budget. Thus the speeches on growth and constant attempts to convince to businesses that they should be investing in Britain. If the economy continues stagnating, and per capita GDP keeps falling, they know it’s game over.
The second goal – fixing the NHS – is seen as more in hand. After all they’ve increased the health budget by £22.6 billion over two years. Wes Streeting is considered one of their more capable and dynamic ministers. The doctors’ strike was quickly resolved. Several key advisers from the Blair era, who helped slash waiting lists and boost patient satisfaction back then, are helping out. An ambitious “10 year plan” is in the works.
But this is not 2001. The NHS is in a bigger mess than it was back then and operating through a much more convoluted and complex structure. We have an older and sicker population. The workforce is more demoralised than ever, and leadership is weaker. Whatever one thinks of Streeting’s capabilities this is a much bigger challenge than I fear is widely realised.
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