1 February 2025

Can The Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

Seth J. Frantzman

Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in late November 2024 to end more than a year of fighting. The ceasefire came after Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon on October 1 and targeted Hezbollah leaders and missile depots across Lebanon. The ceasefire’s initial period was sixty days, beginning on November 27, 2025. Israel is supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon by the end of the sixty days, and the Lebanese army is supposed to deploy to the border area, preventing Hezbollah’s return.

The ceasefire deal is supposed to lead to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution hasn’t been implemented since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Instead, Hezbollah increased its arsenal in Lebanon and built up its forces near the Israeli border. On October 8, 2023, following the Hamas attack a day earlier on Israel, Hezbollah began attacks on Israel. Throughout 2024, Hezbollah and Israel traded fire, with Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets and drone attacks on Israel. By August, Israeli authorities estimated 7,500 rockets and 200 drone attacks had occurred.

The two months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah that began with Israel announcing Operation Northern Arrows on September 23 was the heaviest fighting since the 2006 war. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and one of his likely successors.

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