Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr.
INTRODUCTION
This net assessment addresses the balance of strategic forces between the United States and its two principal rivals, the People’s Republic of China (PRC, or “China”), and the Russian Federation (“Russia”). The assessment examines both the current balance and trends that will influence how the balance might shift over the planning horizon, defined here as the 2035–40 time frame. It also explores how the United States might improve its competitive position.
As Andrew W. Marshall, its originator, defined it, net assessment “is a careful comparison of U.S. weapon systems, forces, and policies in relation to those of other countries. . . . [It] is intended to be diagnostic. It will highlight . . . areas of comparative advantage with respect to our rivals.”5
What This Assessment Is Not
Marshall took pains to emphasize that net assessments are “not intended to provide recommendations as to force levels or force structures as an output.”6 Thus, for example, readers seeking detailed proposals of US strategic force levels will be disappointed. To employ a medical analogy, net assessments are intended to provide senior defense policymakers and military leaders with a diagnosis of the competitive environment as it exists today and as it may shift over time. As in the medical profession, arriving at an accurate diagnosis is essential to identifying the proper prescription with respect to force levels, mix, and posture as well as defense policy and program priorities.
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