22 February 2025

Assessing Trump’s Aggressive Deportation Goals: How Many Migrants And Which Ones? – Analysis

Rut Bermejo Casado and Eric Sigmon

1. Introduction

During the 2024 electoral campaign, Trump not only promised to restore some of his previous immigration policies, such as the creation of a ‘great wall’ on the southern border, but he also introduced new proposals to combat irregular immigration to the US. One of the most repeated claims was that he would carry out ‘the largest deportation operation in American history’. Thus, his plan is not only to work on the external dimension of migration control (particularly border controls or, in his words, ‘sealing the border’) but also to address the internal dimension, that is, to reduce the number of immigrants already within the country’s borders.[1]

Although the concept of mass deportations appears to conflict with the very historical identity of the US as a nation of immigrants (Cornelius, Martin & Hollifield, 1994; Martin & Orrenius, 2022),[2] from the day of his inauguration, he began signing executive orders to implement a restrictive immigration policy designed by his trusted advisor, Stephen Miller, and to fulfil the promised deportations.

Two main aspects of his immigration policy, particularly his deportation plan, are discussed below. First, the potential numerical scope of his plan is examined to answer the question: how many people are likely to be deported? Secondly, which individuals will be included in the operation?

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