Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
China’s ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal may be aimed at eventually achieving nuclear parity with the United States. But regardless of the rationale, China’s nuclear expansion, along with possible changes to its nuclear doctrine, are of great concern to India, its neighbor in South Asia. This report—based on interviews with nearly two dozen Indian security experts, including former military and government officials—assesses India’s strategic thinking on China’s nuclear expansion, and what consequences it may have for India’s own nuclear development and US interests in Asia.
SummaryIndia is monitoring China’s ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal carefully, looking to identify China’s goals, gauge the impact on regional security, and determine its response.
A significant increase in the size of China’s nuclear arsenal, together with the adoption of a generally coercive posture toward India or a change in China’s no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy, could compel India to respond.
Interviews with former senior Indian civilian and military officials suggest that India’s response will not seek to match China’s nuclear expansion but will address the imbalance qualitatively, focusing on developing longer-range and submarine-launched missiles and other technological enhancements.
The strong expectation is that China will not abandon its NFU stance, though it may modify certain policies within its NFU stance.
There was consensus among the interviewees on most subjects, but they were divided about whether China’s nuclear force structure will continue to emphasize land-based missiles or shift to emphasize submarines, which India has limited ability to track.
India and the United States could both benefit from closer interactions on addressing the rationale and consequences of China’s nuclear expansion.
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