African Migration Trends to Watch in 2025

Wendy Williams

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Africa Sees Decreased Off-Continent Irregular Migration

• Heightened restrictions on intercontinental border crossings to Europe and the Arabian Peninsula over the past year have resulted in dramatic drops in African irregular migration off-continent. The 146,000 interceptions of irregularly migrating Africans who reached Europe and Gulf countries in 2024 are roughly half of the 282,000 recorded in 2023.
• The sharp decline in African irregular migration to Europe reflects stepped up European Union-funded interdiction efforts in North Africa (Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt) and West Africa (Senegal and Mauritania). Morocco, illustratively, reports having prevented more than 45,000 crossings to Europe, while arresting 177 migrant trafficking gangs and rescuing more than 10,800 people at sea.
• The 54-percent decline in irregular migration (to 44,000 people) to Yemen (the primary entry point to the Gulf countries) is a result of a combination of factors including ongoing armed conflict in Yemen and intensified operations by Djiboutian and Yemeni Coast Guards to prevent migrant crossings over the Bab al-Mandeb.
• While recorded migrant deaths and disappearances declined by 15 percent in 2024, there were still an estimated 4,465 migrant fatalities. Three-quarters of these are from attempted maritime crossings to Europe via the Mediterranean and Atlantic.
• Interdictions in North Africa and West Africa have contributed to a 70-percent downturn in European interceptions of African migrants (to 33,500 people) along the Central Mediterranean route, mainly via Libya and Tunisia. The Central Mediterranean route has historically been the most frequented irregular migration pathway for African nationals to Europe.
• With 36,000 African migrants intercepted in 2024, the Atlantic route became the most active irregular passage from Africa to Europe.