Robert Kelly
Drones, NATO, and Russia: What the Ukraine War Taught the World
The third anniversary of the beginning of the Ukraine War is a useful moment to step back and consider the larger lessons of the war.
The conflict itself has mostly bogged down. Russia has made some advances in the last year, but the costs have been enormous. It is winning only in the sense of a pyrrhic victory – that is, it is losing so much in order to take small increments of territory that the war jeopardizes other Russian strategic interests.
Russia is no longer, for example, a credible peer competitor with China, the US, or the European Union. After three years of unexpectedly hard conflict, it is too economically backward and militarily reduced.
Ukraine, though, is in trouble too. Its manpower and munitions shortages are well-known. And US President Donald Trump has aggressively signaled that he wants the war over as soon as possible. So a deal seems likely soon. Thus, now is an opportune moment to consider the war’s larger story for the future of conflict.
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