Maha Hosain Aziz
As Trump 2.0 kicked off last week, government and business leaders at the World Economic Forum's (WEF) 55th Annual Meeting in Davos discussed global risks that will shape the coming year. Yesterday we released our ninth annual NYU-Wikistrat report on the top global risks to watch in 2025, crowdsourcing 157 risks with 132 analysts from 37 countries. Here's our take on key global risk trends to watch for this year:
1. The End of U.S. Global Leadership... And the Start of a Polycentric World?
Back in 2017, during President Donald Trump's first term, we wrote about the start of a post-hegemonic world, as he declared "America First." Former President Joe Biden then tried to reclaim the United States' global role, but with mixed results. With Trump's return, there is clarity—U.S. global leadership is largely over for the next four years. This has implications for everything from security to climate commitments and global health. This could also, over time, be empowering for other actors as they fill gaps in global leadership (e.g. billionaire Michael Bloomberg has already stepped up to provide funding to the UN's climate budget). Look for power to disperse in what is likely the start of a more polycentric era. Will a polycentric world be any better at tackling our global polycrisis? Over time, perhaps. But for now, in 2025, expect heightened risk as everyone adjusts to Trump's next steps. And, of course, look for those with an axe to grind—from extremist groups to rogue states and struggling superpowers—to once again capitalize on the global lack of leadership to make gains.
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