Sam Freedman
According to betting markets Nigel Farage is currently favourite to be Prime Minister after Keir Starmer. Even for the overexcitable world of political gambling this is not so much due to a belief that Farage will actually be PM as a vote of no confidence in Kemi Badenoch. All logic suggests she has a much better chance – if still a longshot – at the top job. Reform has just five seats in Parliament and is second in fewer than 100 other constituencies. Extraordinary shifts are always possible in politics but becoming the largest party in Parliament is a distance prospect.
But Badenoch has had a poor start as leader, indulging in pointless fights and typically unnecessary rudeness towards interviewers. What’s most concerning to her colleagues is that these flaws have been pointed out to her but she either doesn’t care or doesn’t understand the problem. Another silly row with Farage over the Christmas break suggests she has no intention of changing approach. Meanwhile she remains largely unknown to most of the public. Labour are doing a more effective job of opposing themselves than the nominal opposition.
It's early days, and even the regicidal Tories will give her more time but in the meantime the Reform leadership are playing a clever game by appealing to the Lobby’s desperation for a narrative during a period of relative political calm. The excitements of the 2016-2024 era have left Westminster even more addicted to drama than usual and Farage is good at telling a story.
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