22 January 2025

When Israel and Turkey go to war

Michael Walsh

Over the next three months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have a policy window in which to try to go for broke in Syria.

The key question that he has to ask himself is whether his government should be content with the current state of affairs or whether it is worth the risk of pushing back against Turkish expansionism now rather than later.

From an analytical point of view, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding the various foreign actors operating on the ground in Iraq and Syria. This includes the question of what role the Turkish Armed Forces may seek to play in their near abroad now that Bashar al-Assad has fallen.

That is an important question to ask. The Nagel Commission recently assessed that the risk of direct conflict between Israel and Turkey is real. This has led a number of prominent Israelis to call upon their own government to prepare for a war with Turkey.

In the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, also known as Rojava, Assad’s fall provided a similar policy window for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to take the fight to American-backed Kurdish forces in Rojava.

No comments: