Can Kasapoğlu
1. Assad’s Fall Disrupts Russian Submarine Deployments in the Mediterranean
Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in Syria marks another setback for Russia’s overseas military posture. After the regime’s collapse, the Russian Navy’s last Improved Kilo–class submarine in the Mediterranean Sea departed the Soviet-remnant Tartous naval base. On January 2, the Portuguese Navy spotted the Novorossiysk sailing through Gibraltar en route to the Baltics.
Since 2013 the Russian Black Sea Fleet has rotated its Improved Kilos to the Tartous base. In 2015 Russian submarines launched Kalibr naval cruise missiles at targets in Syria, a milestone for Moscow’s nonnuclear long-range strike prowess. And in 2017 Jens Stoltenberg, then the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s secretary general, warned that Russian submarine activity in the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean was at its highest level since the Cold War.
The Black Sea Fleet has six Improved Kilo–class submarines, four of which remain in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian military has repeatedly struck and disabled one, the Rostov-on-Don, with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Along with the Novorossiysk, the Krasnodar is forward deployed to the Baltic Sea.
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