12 January 2025

Ukraine Has Launched A New Offensive Into Russia. Why And Why Now?

Todd Prince

Since August, Ukrainian forces have been struggling to hold onto territory they seized in Russia's Kursk region, part of a cross-border incursion that, despite having unclear tactical aims, surprised Kyiv's Western allies and the Kremlin.

Now Kyiv has launched a new offensive in Kursk, pushing against Russian forces supported by North Korean soldiers who have clawed back more than half of the territory Ukraine captured.

It's not clear why Ukraine is waging a new assault in Kursk, and why now. Ukraine is struggling in multiple locations along the front line. It's outgunned by Russia. It has major problems recruiting and mobilizing enough men to replenish its depleted ranks.

So why expend scarce resources on a new, possibly futile offensive? The goal, experts say, could be to change the narrative of the nearly three-year war.

"Ukraine's center of gravity is U.S. support. Any gains it makes inside Russia will make it harder for the new administration to call the war a lost cause," said John Nagl, a professor at the U.S. Army War College.

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