James Woudhuysen
Too often, mainstream-media accounts of US president Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy descend into cod psychology.
We’re told he is emotionally inclined to cosy up to authoritarian leaders, from Chinese premier Xi Jinping to Russian president Vladimir Putin. Others claim he ‘embrace[s] unpredictability’ and loves to appear ‘crazy’. The US national editor at the Financial Times has even suggested that Trump sees the world as a jungle ruled by big predators determined to ‘pick off weak small ones’ – with America cast as the biggest predator of them all.
These interpretations explain very little. Geopolitical realities will have a far greater impact on US foreign policy than will the psyche of Donald Trump. His and his team’s approach will be characterised, above all, by improvisation in the face of events often beyond America’s control.
While Russia’s war with Ukraine and the ongoing conflagration in the Middle East are dominating the headlines, the US’s principal foreign-policy focus will continue to be China. Indeed, the prospective actions of America’s main global rival are set to dominate the geopolitical strategising of the incoming administration.
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