Colin P. Clarke
Sitting down to write my annual assessment on trends in terrorism in early 2025, I am struggling more than usual, fresh off the horrors of an Islamic State (ISIS)-inspired terrorist attack in New Orleans that killed fourteen people and injured dozens more. It is always a challenge to look beyond the immediate, to take a step back and weigh myriad factors and variables that impact which trends may accelerate and which may disappear.
It is impossible to know whether the New Orleans attack suggests a “new wave” of ISIS-inspired attacks in the West and in the United States in particular. Rather, the attack is another data point that demonstrates what many in the counterterrorism community have been saying ad nauseum for years—the threat posed by ISIS is consistent, enduring, and likely to ebb and flow over time in response to geopolitical events and counterterrorism pressure. Still, the threat is enduring and will remain an uncomfortable truth for policymakers as they attempt to right-size the resources provided to counter-terrorism agencies with their agreed-upon level of risk tolerance.
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