Stephen J. Cimbala & Lawrence J. Korb
The incoming Trump administration will have to deal with many challenges in domestic and foreign policy, including threats and dangers related to nuclear weapons, deterrence, and arms control. Three nuclear challenges will prove particularly difficult to address: Russia’s repeated threats of nuclear first use in Ukraine and their relationship to viable endgames for that conflict; Iran’s status as a threshold nuclear weapons state and its implications for regional stability; and the emergence of a Chinese nuclear superpower and its implications for global security.
The policies adopted and decisions made during the second Trump administration will involve the fate of the war in Europe, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, and China’s nuclear arsenal. If they incorporate military and diplomatic tools properly, those policies and decisions could open the door to a more peaceful and stable world. But in the absence of a balanced and thoughtful approach, the door may open wide to a world of continued war, nuclear weapons proliferation, and worldwide arms racing.
Russia’s nuclear threats. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reminded Ukraine, the United States, and the other NATO members of Russia’s large inventory of nuclear weapons. He also warned them that, under certain circumstances, Russia would not hesitate to use these weapons.
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