Hal Brands
When Donald Trump first won the presidency, the world had a bit of a freak-out. The French ambassador to the US melted down on social media. Germany’s Angela Merkel fretted that Washington was abandoning the international system it had built. The global elites of Davos lauded China’s Xi Jinping when he promised, risibly, to be the defender of an open, cooperative world.
Now, Trump is back, and he certainly hasn’t mellowed. Yet this time, much of the world is more calmly, even optimistically, awaiting his second term. That moderated reaction speaks volumes about how the world’s expectations of America have changed over the past eight years — and how the world itself has gotten more Trumpy.
For insight, consult new polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations. Most European populations still dislike Trump. Still, Trump has encountered little of the overt hand-wringing or resistance diplomacy that characterized his first time around. Rather, European leaders — including French president Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte — have rushed to engage with Trump even before his inauguration. And if most European elites seem resigned to Trump redux, other parts of the world are downright welcoming.
Publics in key states — including India, Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia — think Trump will be more good than bad for their countries. On balance, the world expects he will help rather than hurt the chances for peace in Ukraine and the Middle East. Even Ukrainians themselves are more bullish than bearish. What exactly is going on?
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