20 January 2025

The strategic logic of Ukraine’s further push into Russia’s Kursk region

David Kirichenko

Ukraine is launching a fresh offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, aiming to reclaim the initiative, expose Russia’s persistent vulnerabilities and strengthen its position ahead of potential peace talks. At the same time, Russia continues to press further in Donetsk Oblast, taking as much Ukrainian land as possible before President-elect Trump takes office. While many pundits questioned Ukraine’s initial incursion into Kursk in August 2024, outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken has acknowledged that Ukraine’s positions there could play an important role in potential negotiations with Russia.

Following the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the frontlines began to stabilize and the fight gradually turned into a war of attrition. Ukraine’s former top general, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, admitted in an interview in 2023 that he misjudged Russia, believing he could stop the Russians by bleeding them out: “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.”

But for Russia, human life means little; Vladimir Putin measures the losses in comparison to the Great Patriotic War (what Russians call World War II). So we can assume that Putin is willing to expend hundreds of thousands more, or even millions, of soldiers to conquer Ukraine. Independent Russian polling in 2024 also confirms that the majority of Russians support the ongoing war against Ukraine.

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