Charina Chou, James Manyika, and Hartmut Neven
Over the last several years, as rapid advances in artificial intelligence have gained enormous public attention and critical scrutiny, another crucial technology has been evolving largely out of public view. Once confined to the province of abstract theory, quantum computing seeks to use operations based on quantum mechanics to crack computational problems that were previously considered unsolvable. Although the technology is still in its infancy, it is already clear that quantum computing could have profound implications for national security and the global economy in the decades to come.
Since the late 2010s, the United States and many other advanced countries have become increasingly involved in the race for leadership in quantum information science and technology, a field that encompasses quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing. Over the last decade, governments in 20 countries have announced investments in quantum development totaling more than $40 billion worldwide; China alone has committed to spend $15.3 billion over five years. In 2016, Beijing designated the development of quantum technologies as a national priority, and it has created advanced hubs for production. For its part, the United States, in 2018, enacted the National Quantum Initiative, legislation aimed at maintaining the country’s technological and scientific lead in quantum information and its applications. The U.S. government has announced $3.7 billion in unclassified funding, plus more funding for defense research and development. In addition to government-led initiatives, multiple research and development efforts are underway in the private sector and academia.
Although these investments are still dwarfed by U.S. and international funding for AI, the rise of quantum technology has already begun to shape international policy. In 2019, the United States announced a bilateral “statement on quantum cooperation” with Japan, which the U.S. government strengthened in 2023. And in 2024, Washington established a multilateral initiative called the Quantum Development Group to coordinate strategies for advancing and managing the new technology. The United States has also discussed quantum issues within various economic and security forums, including AUKUS, the trilateral defense pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States; the Quad, or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, among Australia, India, Japan, and the United States; and the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council. Underscoring the growing concerns about the technology in Washington, one analyst for the Center for a New American Security argued in November, following the U.S. presidential election, that the incoming administration must “act quickly during the first 100 days to reinvigorate America’s quantum competitiveness.”
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