Richard Weitz
Shortly after assuming office, the new Trump administration will undertake a comprehensive review of the missile threats confronting the United States. Geopolitical and technical developments are undermining the longstanding foundations of U.S. missile defense policy. Potential adversaries such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are deploying an expanding portfolio of ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles—supplemented by large fleets of reconnaissance and strike drones. These countries are pooling their resources in the missile domain. Both Iran and North Korea give Moscow missiles and drones to use against Ukraine, while Russia is assisting these partners’ aerospace programs. Meanwhile, technology is transcending delineations between regional and homeland missile systems.
Some beneficial changes have already occurred. The Pentagon is deploying a Next-Generation Interceptor before the end of this decade. The new interceptor will make the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system protecting North America from intercontinental ballistic missiles more effective. The Missile Defense Agency has launched a new Transformation Task Force to evaluate options for realigning missions and responsibilities, integrating cross-domain capabilities, modernizing digital technologies, improving internal agency processes, and enhancing cooperation with operational forces and other partners.
Advances in U.S. missile defense capabilities have been evident in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The United States can leverage these technologies to build a more comprehensive missile shield. However, budget constraints and competing priorities could degrade capabilities and increase risks.
In particular, U.S. defenses against hypersonic missiles are lagging. The Chinese and Russian militaries are constructing several types of hypersonic conventional and nuclear delivery systems capable of traveling at many times the speed of sound. The Defense Department’s latest China military power report assesses that “The PRC has the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal.” Russia has employed several hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, including its new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in December.
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