29 January 2025

The Limits of the Madman Theory

Roseanne McManusJ

Even though they have already witnessed four years of a Donald Trump presidency, analysts have little certainty about how Trump plans to approach most countries in his second term. That’s exactly how he likes it. Since first running for president in 2016, Trump has positioned himself as an unpredictable leader and argued that doing so strengthens U.S. foreign policy. During his first campaign, Trump argued, “We must as a nation be more unpredictable.” At a dinner in 2018, when discussing negotiations with North Korea, he called himself a “madman”—only partially tongue in cheek. Asked during his 2024 campaign how he

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