The Five Central Asian Countries Remain Shaped By The ‘Soviet Structure’ – Analysis

Zhou Chao

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Independence is not only about the formal sovereignty of a nation but also about economic structural constraints. In Central Asia, this economic structure is what ANBOUND’s founder Mr. Kung Chan refers to as the “Soviet structure”. Mr. Chan points out that, even today, and perhaps into the future, this “Soviet structure” continues to deeply influence the long-term stability and security of the Central Asian region.

A significant feature of the Soviet-era economic system was its strong planned nature. In the Central Asian region, Kyrgyzstan is an agricultural country, with agriculture being the backbone of its economy, accounting for 36% of its GDP. Uzbekistan is the world’s sixth-largest cotton producer and the second-largest cotton exporter. According to past data, 28% of Uzbekistan’s workforce was in agriculture, which contributed 24% to its GDP. Tajikistan is the poorest country in Central Asia, with a low GDP; in 2006, its GDP was only 80% of what it had been in 1990. The country’s economy is also heavily reliant on agriculture and livestock. Thus, several key countries in the Central Asian region, influenced by the “Soviet structure”, have their economies and productive forces focused on water-intensive agricultural sectors, and this situation has not fundamentally changed.

However, since the Soviet era, water scarcity has always been a significant challenge. The five Central Asian countries are located deep in the heart of the Eurasian continent, making it difficult for oceanic moisture to reach the region. As a result, the average annual precipitation in Central Asia is generally below 300 millimeters. In areas near the Aral Sea and the deserts of Turkmenistan, the annual rainfall is even as low as 75-100 millimeters. Only in the mountains and the southern slopes of the Fergana Valley does precipitation increase slightly, reaching 1,000-2,000 millimeters. Along with the low rainfall, evaporation is exceptionally high. For example, the annual evaporation rate from the Amu Darya Delta can reach 1,798 millimeters, which is 21 times the local precipitation.