Michelle Grisé and Mark Cozad
The Ukraine war has often been characterized as a precipitating factor in the growing alignment of the United States' key adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—and it is true that the conflict in Ukraine has incentivized greater cooperation between the members of this quartet. The fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria may bring America's four most dangerous antagonists closer together still, at least for now.
The growing alignment of these four countries has been driven by a shared perception that the United States and its allies have historically acted to undermine their sovereignty, weaken their influence, and cut off their access to markets. In Moscow and Tehran, as well as in Beijing and Pyongyang, the fall of Assad is likely to be seen through this prism, as yet another data point suggesting that the West will do anything to undermine their survival.
The overnight collapse of the Syrian regime could heighten fears of domestic upheaval, particularly in Moscow and Tehran. As part of the growing military cooperation between the two countries, Russia has already shared advanced surveillance technologies with Iran, but the recent events in Syria could incentivize greater cooperation and knowledge sharing on surveillance and mechanisms for internal control. Assad's downfall will reinforce once again a key lesson for authoritarian regimes across the globe about the cost of failing to stamp out internal threats to their continued rule. As a result, other countries may decide to pursue greater alignment with Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea if they view the risk of regime change as greater than the costs of cooperation with U.S. adversaries.
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