Lawrence Freedman
For the first time since the spring of 2022 a serious effort is underway to find a negotiated solution to the Russo-Ukraine War. As a candidate Donald Trump promised that he could do a deal in a day. Since his election victory there has been intense speculation about how he intended to make good on this promise, even accepting that the timetable was a tad ambitious.
He no longer claims that the war will be solved in a day or even ‘very quickly.’ The latest promise is still of a solution but not a firm timeline. Notes of caution have appeared about the extent of the challenge. Nonetheless the process has been set in motion. The administration’s intention is soon to move to formal negotiations.
Left to themselves there is no reason to suppose that the belligerents would have agreed to talks other than on secondary topics such as prisoner exchanges or commercial shipping in the Black Sea. Their positions remain incompatible. The Trump administration can get them to engage because of the likely costs if they fail to do so. Ukrainians know that if they hold back then the US will withhold assistance; the Russians are nervous that if they snub Trump then US support to Ukraine will be sustained or even increased.
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