Zaid Al-Ali
Since the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies took control of Damascus and Syria’s government institutions last November, the group’s leadership has been sending out signals about what type of transition and future constitutional order might be in store for the country. HTS officials have repeatedly stated that they plan to be inclusive toward Syria’s Alawite, Christian, Druze, Kurdish, and other minorities, which has reassured many Syrians and international observers. Most importantly, perhaps, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa—also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani—spoke with Al Arabiya News on Dec. 29, 2024, about how the transition may play out.
Behind the rhetoric, however, there is considerable cause to believe that HTS has already decided how Syria should be governed—even though negotiations with other groups have not even started. After he was asked when elections might take place, Sharaa responded that a “presidential election” cannot take place for another few years. The issue here is not the delay, which is not unusual in a post-conflict environment where a state has to be rebuilt. But by talking about presidential elections, HTS appears to take it for granted that Syria will have a presidential system rather than a parliamentary one, which is normally something that is only decided after complex negotiations with all major political groups in a constitutional convention or similar format. Even if the reference to a presidential election was meant as a starting point for discussions, as some have interpreted, the fact that HTS is even considering maintaining Syria’s presidential system is cause for concern, given the terrible experience with such systems in the region, including not only Syria but also Libya and Tunisia.
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