2 January 2025

Strategic consequences of Pakistan’s growing dependence on China - Opinion

Admiral Sunil Lanba

Pakistan's sovereignty is increasingly at risk due to its deepening strategic and economic dependence on China. Initially perceived as a mutually beneficial partnership, the relationship between Pakistan and China has evolved into one marked by significant concessions from Pakistan. Islamabad’s mounting debt from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and granting fishing rights indicate this shift. These developments undermine Pakistan's autonomy and threaten regional stability in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This analysis explores the implications of these trends, drawing parallels between China's actions in Pakistan and its expansionist strategies in the South China Sea (SCS).

China's Strategic Influence

The CPEC and Territorial Encroachments

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was once hailed as a transformative initiative for Pakistan, promising infrastructure development, job creation, and economic growth. However, more contemporary developments suggest a more ominous reality. China's growing control in areas like the Gwadar SEZ and granting fishing rights to Chinese vessels signal a significant shift in the partnership. These transactions go beyond mere economic deals, reflecting China's growing strategic influence in Pakistan. By securing control over strategically important maritime zones, such as those near Gwadar, China has been able to extend its reach and capabilities into the Arabian Sea.

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