Dr Richard Connolly
Russia regained the momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine last year. Although Russian progress remains slow and costly, the outlook for the year ahead is bleak. Ukraine’s energy system has been heavily damaged by Russian air strikes, and its forces continue to lose ground in southern Donetsk, where the heaviest fighting is taking place.
Perhaps most importantly, political shifts in some of Kyiv’s key allies – especially the US – could result in crucial financial and military aid being substantially reduced in the year ahead. Together, these trends raise the prospect of Ukraine being forced to accept a crushing defeat after three years of heroic resistance.
Against this lugubrious backdrop, many analysts have seized on what appears to be a rare bright spot: Russia’s faltering ‘war economy’, which – according to some – is ‘Putin’s greatest weakness’. An acute labour shortage, persistent and rising inflation caused by soaring military expenditure, and ever-tightening sanctions will – it is claimed – finally bring about an economic crisis that will force Moscow to abandon its maximalist aims in Ukraine and bring about an end to the war on terms more acceptable to Kyiv and its allies.
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