14 January 2025

Russia Is Stepping Up Its Covert War Beyond Ukraine

Bart Schuurman

A masked Russian soldier takes part in a counterterrorism exercise at an Interior Ministry base near Moscow on Sept. 4, 2007.A masked Russian soldier takes part in a counterterrorism exercise at an Interior Ministry base near Moscow on Sept. 4, 2007. 

Just this week, Duma member Alexander Kazakov claimed Russian sabotage in the Baltic Sea was part of a military operation aimed at provoking NATO and enlarging Russia’s control over the area. While events such as the cutting of undersea cables have garnered substantial media attention, no systematic effort has been made to assess the full scope and nature of Russia’s actions against Europe. Analysis from Leiden University exposes how far Russia is willing to go to weaken its European adversaries and isolate Ukraine from vital support. It paints a chilling picture of the potential for Russian escalation below the nuclear threshold—and underlines the need for a concerted and assertive European response, which has been lacking so far.

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