Alexandra Prokopenko
The newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump has promised a swift end to the war in Ukraine. Faced with the unattractive alternative of continuing to fight without the assurance of further U.S. backing, Kyiv and its Western partners are now considering how to secure an acceptable deal with Moscow. In his Senate confirmation hearing to become U.S. secretary of state, Florida Senator Marco Rubio cited economic sanctions on Russia as a key source of leverage that could bring about a peaceful resolution. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, meanwhile, has stated that “time is not on Russia’s side,” especially if the West ramps up aid to Ukraine and intensifies the sanctions on Moscow. By applying enough pressure now, the thinking goes, Ukraine and its backers can enter talks from a favorable position, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be forced to engage in good-faith negotiations that end in a satisfactory settlement.
It is true that Putin’s current strategy is unsustainable. He is trying to simultaneously wage war in Ukraine, maintain high social and infrastructure spending to create an illusion of normality for his domestic constituents, and preserve macroeconomic stability. It is impossible to do all three in perpetuity. Achieving the first and second goals requires large outlays of cash, which fuel inflation and thus prevent the achievement of the third goal. And the cracks in the Russian economy are becoming increasingly apparent.
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