Hal Brands
That conviction, the product of Britain’s oceanic moat and Enlightenment traditions, had brought the country—and much of humanity—to the edge of the abyss in the worst moments of World War II. Were he alive, Orwell might see parallels in the American mindset today.
Most Americans alive now have known only a world structured, pacified, and made prosperous by unrivaled US power. For most Americans, then, it probably seems unthinkable that the international system could buckle under assault by revisionist states, much less that the next great-power war could end in a US defeat. That confidence is a testament to the world-altering success of US foreign policy since 1945. And it risks blinding Americans to their situation’s precariousness.
In every key region of Eurasia, revisionist states are aggressively contesting the status quo. They are gathering into an autocratic bloc more cohesive than anything the United States has faced in generations. But even as our moment increasingly resembles a prewar era, America is trapped in a post–Cold War mentality that risks leaving the nation overstretched and under-armed if a graver crisis strikes.
As a result, an alarming gap has emerged between America’s global commitments and ability to vindicate those commitments if they are tested. The world is becoming less stable. International affairs are becoming more violent. And the United States is running out of time to avoid its own geopolitical nightmare.2
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