Chase Metcalf & Michael Posey
Introduction
The American people recently re-elected former President Donald J. Trump. President-elect Trump’s return to the Oval Office will likely change the future of the Russia-Ukraine War. In June 2024, President-elect Trump said, “I would tell Zelensky no more — you got to make a deal,” Mr. Trump said of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. “I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot.” Using President-elect Trump’s quote alongside an “Ends-Ways-Means” formulation for strategy, we forecasted five future scenarios we believe could come to fruition during the next few years. We applied Art Lykke’s strategy model, which seeks to employ a risk-informed balance of ends (objectives), ways (concepts), and means (resources) that further a nation’s interests. In crafting our forecasts, we take the perspective of Ukraine for the End-Ways-Means strategy formulation.
Also inherent in the President-elect’s quote is the notion that Kyiv and Moscow have agency in the outcome but not the decision by the United States. President Zelensky’s response to the future POTUS plan was, “I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision” to end the conflict, Zelensky remarked, but he added, “It doesn’t mean that it will happen this way.” He stressed that a peace process must be just and not risk leaving Ukraine vulnerable. Knowing that other actors have agency, we argue that the United States can influence the outcome but not impose a solution. Based on President Zelensky’s “Victory Plan,” we will assume Ukraine’s current ends remain the liberation of all occupied Ukrainian territory and the ability to ensure Ukraine’s future security.
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