Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.
There is much talk of China girding for war, whether it is an attack against Taiwan, a great power conflict with the United States or some other scenario. These are frighteningly plausible possibilities. Yet, obsessing about the specter of a devastating high-intensity conflagration risks downplaying the serious day-in-day-out challenge that China poses right now, particularly to Taiwan, via an array of hostile actions and influence operations calibrated below the threshold of actual military conflict. If the United States and its partners do not effectively push back against this coercion and intimidation now, China may strengthen its position in a way that directly harms American interests and threatens to pull the United States into a war.
While far from tranquil, since World War II, the world has been mercifully spared the tragedy of a cataclysmic military conflict between great powers. Nevertheless, brutal and bloody smaller wars are ongoing around the globe, mostly internecine domestic conflicts. Interstate wars may be less common but can be just as costly in terms of the toll on human life and scope of destruction. The fierce protracted campaigns waged between heavily armed combatants and horrific suffering innocent civilians endure in conflicts such as the war in Ukraine deservedly receive extensive attention.
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