Ye Myo Hein
Myanmar's post-coup conflict has now stretched into its fourth year, with no resolution in sight. Far from subsiding, the conflict has escalated dramatically. Last year was particularly devastating for the Myanmar military, marking its worst losses in history. The fall of key military strongholds in Lashio and Ann stands as the most significant events but is only part of a broader pattern of losses; 91 towns and 167 military battalions have been lost, signaling a crisis of unprecedented scale for the regime.
2024: Escalating Conflict and Chinese Intervention
Having gained steady momentum over the past two years, the resistance reached a turning point in 2024, posing an existential threat to the regime. Alarmed by this shift, China intervened more actively to prevent the junta’s collapse and contain the conflict.
Operation 1027, launched by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) on China’s border in late 2023, peaked in 2024, transforming the conflict’s trajectory. Its impact is evident in four key areas:
- Nationwide Escalation: Although Operation 1027 originated in northern Shan State, it triggered major offensives in Sagaing, Rakhine, Kachin, Chin and Rakhine regions, creating simultaneous fronts that overwhelmed the Myanmar military’s capacity to respond effectively. This widespread escalation fractured the military’s command and logistical networks, highlighting its inability to maintain control over its borders. The military’s severely weakened position gave resistance forces a significant morale boost and increased their confidence in their capacity not only to wage conventional warfare against the military, but also to seize towns and cities.
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