Mick Ryan
The new year has begun with a rush of events. In Europe, governments are posturing for the arrival of the second Donald Trump administration. On his first day in office, Trump signed around 100 executive orders.
In Ukraine, both sides continue their brutal and bitter ground and aerial attacks, seeking to position themselves for any negotiations in 2025. In the Middle East, Syria remains unsettled after the fall of the Assad regime, Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, while Israel continues its operations against Hezbollah. Iran, drastically weakened over the past year, watches on nervously as the man it allegedly tried to assassinate returns to the White House. In the Pacific, China has unveiled two new stealthy aircraft, launched naval barges suitable for an invasion of Taiwan, and continues its coercion against the Philippines, Taiwan and other neighbours.
These events indicate that the year ahead will be at least as uncertain, violent and chaotic as 2024. However, besides the fighting and posturing of different actors across the globe, key trends will affect the capacity and sustainability of military forces and influence the future of war. Here are five key trends to watch in 2025.
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