Steven A. Cook
What are the prospects for this hostage deal effectively ending the Israel-Hamas war?
A cease-fire and hostage deal does not necessarily end the war. It is important to keep in mind that when Hamas launched its attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, it was also launching a total war that included a broad international effort to de-legitimize the state of Israel. Even if a cease-fire were to end the hostilities in Gaza, as the draft agreement reportedly envisions, Hamas, affiliated groups, and other international actors like the Iranian regime would continue the war by other means.
In addition, the three-phased cease-fire agreement will likely be vulnerable to vigorous opposition on both sides. The first phase alone is six weeks, and only on the sixteenth day of that stage will negotiations begin over the terms of the second phase. This extended time frame provides opportunities for the agreement’s Israeli and Palestinian opponents to undermine it at critical moments.
This was the pattern during the 1990s, which featured the Oslo Accords peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians. Of course, the Oslo process was drawn out over the better part of a decade, but it is not hard to imagine similar dynamics emerging over this cease-fire. During the Oslo process, whenever there was perceived progress toward peace, opponents of compromise sowed discord through politics and violence, damaging the legitimacy of the talks to the point that they collapsed. In the current moment, the main spoilers could be Israeli settlers who want nothing less than the destruction of Hamas and the resettlement of Gaza, and Palestinian extremists who believe they are winning.
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